Forecasting Growth In 2026: Which Nations Will Grow and What That Growth Really Means
Every year, “the global economy” is defined as a single organism that moves in sync. Growth in 2026 appears to illustrate a shift in this assumption, with some countries accelerating while others slow down. The variance across institutions notably illustrates the complexity of global growth: the IMF projects global growth at 3.3% (IMF 2026), the OECD at 2.9% (OECD 2025), and the UN at 2.7% (United Nations 2026). However, across these outlooks, the pattern of emerging markets and developing economies growing faster than advanced economies can be noticed. The IMF’s January projections illustrate this principle, with the growth of advanced economies at 1.8%, versus 4.2% for emerging and developing economies in 2026 (IMF 2026). The central question, therefore, is not who grows faster, but whether it marks the beginning of economic convergence or the widening of the gap between developed and developing nations.
The so-called “advanced economy slowdown” is characterized by structural rather than dramatic issues. The OECD specifically frames the following period of global growth as resilient yet moderate, due to the adverse effects of tariffs, including uncertainty in trade and investment (OECD 2025). The UN similarly highlights trade tensions, fiscal constraints, and persistent uncertainty as primary influences on the slowdown, despite easing inflation and monetary loosening (United Nations 2026). Overall, while advanced economies are not necessarily collapsing, they are being constrained by challenges that can be just as decisive as crises. Some of the biggest challenges include debt and fiscal capacity. UNCTAD’s debt analysis highlights how rising debt burdens force developing countries to divert public resources away from development toward debt servicing (UNCTAD 2025b). The general principle is evident in advanced economies, where higher debt levels and tighter politics reduce the room for stimulus even during periods of underwhelming growth (United Nations, 2026). As fiscal space thinks, economies do not stop functioning, but their capacity to absorb shocks, invest for the long term, and take risks that generate productivity is increasingly constrained.
This raises the question of why emerging economies appear to be growing faster. Demographic and domestic demand remain central to the answer, but another, more direct factor lies in the shifting geography of investment and production. As noted by UNCTAD, greenfield investment activity remains strongest in supply chain-intensive manufacturing industries, notably in regions such as South East Asia, Eastern Europe, and Central America. This growth benefits these regions as multinational enterprises aim to rebalance production locations amid shifting trade environments (UNCTAD 2025a). Specifically, the WTO’s 2025 trade outlook emphasizes that historically high tariffs and trade policies have created uncertainty, leading economists to downgrade merchandise trade projections and implying weaker global demand than would otherwise have occurred (WTO 2025). UNCTAD additionally notes how policy volatility and uncertainty have led to delayed investment and hiring decisions (UNCTAD 2025c).
An additional growth driver in 2026 includes the resource side of global economies. The transitions in energy are specifically creating new demand maps, with critical minerals being a vital example. The IEA’s 2025 outlook specifically projects rapid demand growth across key energy transition materials (IEA 2025). Resource-rich developing countries can translate demand into fiscal relief and export gains, but these gains can also lock them into capital-intensive sectors that provide limited employment. Thus, while growth rates may rise, living standards may remain the same, notably if added value is obtained abroad. This, in turn, raises the question of whether growth is a reliable proxy for development. The World Bank argues that growth in developing economies has been declining over the decades and that the ability of emerging and developing economies to reduce extreme poverty has declined (World Bank 2025). Consequently, even if 2026 delivers stronger headline growth in many emerging economies, this does not necessarily indicate an increase in jobs, wages, or resilience against future shocks.
Another aggregate factor is debt, with the UNCTAD reporting that debt service on external public debt will reach $487 billion in 2023, and that the share of developing countries paying at least 6.5% of export revenues to service this debt will increase (UNCTAD 2025b). Thus, export earnings are routed to creditors, leaving states with less capacity to fund health systems, education, infrastructure, and climate goals and adaptation. UNCTAD further notes that in at least one in three developing countries, interest payments are set to exceed spending on essential public services such as health or education (UNCTAD 2025b). Notably, it is under these conditions that a nation can both grow quickly while losing ground in the long term. These hidden divergences can be further illustrated in emerging markets. The IMF’s regional projections illustrate this point by highlighting a variety of trajectories across Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa, with growth remaining notably concentrated in specific regions and countries (IMF 2026). The UN similarly forecasts stronger growth in Africa and parts of Asia relative to Latin America and the Caribbean, but warns that high debt and climate-related shocks remain significant risks for all regions (United Nations 2026). Thus, 2026 remains a complex system that rewards institutional capacity, macro stability, and strategic supply-chain positioning, while simultaneously punishing vulnerability. For policymakers, this potential message indicates that traditional growth comparisons are becoming obsolete and less valuable. By contrast, the UNCTAD’s trade and development framework better measures growth by emphasizing fiscal pressures, debt service costs, and the need for public spending and investment (UNCTAD 2025c). Similarly, the WTO stresses that uncertainty itself can cause downward revisions in economic outcomes. The World Bank finally emphasizes long-run slowdown trends in developing economies alongside difficulties in translating output into jobs and poverty reductions (World Bank 2025). Together, these statements indicate that the “winners” in 2026 are not solely the fastest growers, but instead nations that can convert growth into employment and stability despite the fragmented and shifting nature of global relations.
To conclude, the answer to who will grow in 2026 and why is not a simple list of countries, but rather a set of conditions, growth is most likely to arise in areas where supply chains are rebalanced, domestic demand holds up, and economies can benefit from transitions without being crushed by debt service or policy volatility. Instead, the larger question is whether 2026 will reward broad-based growth or narrow, financialized growth. Thus, if emerging markets outpace advanced economies in 2026, it may signal momentum, but not development.
Sources:
“Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – Analysis - IEA.” IEA, May 21, 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025.
“OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2024 Issue 2 | OECD.” OECD Economic Outlook, December 4, 2024. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2024-issue-2_67bb8fac.html.
“Publications | Economic Analysis and Policy Division.” United Nations, 2025. https://policy.desa.un.org/publications/category/World%20Economic%20Situation%20and%20Prospects%20%28WESP%29%20Full%20Report
“Trade and Development Report 2024: Rethinking Development in the Age of Discontent.” UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), October 29, 2024. https://unctad.org/publication/trade-and-development-report-2024.
World Bank. “Global Economic Prospects, June 2024.” World Bank, July 12, 2024. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099003106112426991.
“World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.” IMF, January 19, 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/01/19/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2026.
“World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 | Desa Publications.” United Nations, January 2026. https://desapublications.un.org/publications/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2026.